sikwin Football Match Observation Bookmaker Changes

In football predictions, are you patient enough to watch 80 minutes of a football match and wait until the last few minutes before making a bet? If you can achieve this kind of self-control psychologically, Sikwin believes that you are not far from success.

Think of this football prediction as a completely different game that lasts about 10-15 minutes and starts with the same odds as your opponent, but the bookmaker is actually under the same pressure as you for the rest of the game.

Before you start putting your money on the line for last-minute bets, you should take the time to watch the game carefully and spend some time pondering how the bookmaker performs in a series of live in-play games. You’ll notice a lot of interesting stuff, some of which tend to contradict logical conclusions or specific odds patterns.

As an example, let’s say you are watching a home match and the odds before the game start are 1.50-1.60. With both teams locked in a stalemate midway through the game, the predetermined and expected reaction was to increase the odds of a home victory and reduce the draw. This is just the nature of odds changes in live betting. However, this change is happening on a smaller scale than you might expect, especially given the time remaining and, in many cases, the team’s performance.

Generally speaking, bookmakers tend to stick to their initial estimates, so they rarely turn to losers. Unless there is a fact that has a significant impact on the game (such as a red card), a home win will remain the most common outcome, at least based on odd-numbered implied probabilities. So, if the game goes scoreless at half-time, a home win should be around 2.50. Oddly, this is not the case, as the home winning percentage will not exceed 2.00 in most of these games.